Assessing and managing the impact of climate change on invasive species: The PBDM approach

Andrew Paul Gutierrez, Luigi Ponti

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (peer-reviewed)

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Assessing the geographic distribution and abundance of invasive species is critical for developing sound management and/or eradication policies. Ecological niche modelling approaches (ENMs) that make implicit assumptions about biology and mathematics are commonly used to predict the potential distribution of invasive species based on their recorded distribution. An alternative approach is physiologically based demographic modelling (PBDM), which explicitly incorporates the mathematics and the observed biology, including trophic interactions, to predict the temporal phenology and dynamics of a species across wide geographic areas. Th e invasive weed, yellow starthistle (YST) (Centaurea solstitialis), and its interactions with annual grasses and herbivorous biological control agents is used to demonstrate the utility of the PBDM approach for analysing complex invasive species problems. Th e PBDM predicts the distribution and relative abundance of YST accurately across the western USA, and the results are used to assess the effects of temperature, rainfall, competition from grasses and the efficacy of biocontrol efforts. Such an effort could also be used to include the direct effects of rising carbon dioxide on YST biology. A bioeconomic model could be developed to show how the YST PBDM analysis can also be used to assess the biological and economic effects of climate change on YST infestation levels regionally. Finally, this chapter discusses the need for a unified system for assessing invasive species problems at the field, regional and global levels, with the goal of enhancing the development of efficacious policy and management decisions.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInvasive Species and Global Climate Change
PublisherCABI International
ISBN (Print)9781780641645
Publication statusPublished - 29 Aug 2014
Externally publishedYes

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Science(all)

Cite this

Gutierrez, A. P., & Ponti, L. (2014). Assessing and managing the impact of climate change on invasive species: The PBDM approach. In Invasive Species and Global Climate Change CABI International.