Development of an efficient real-time disruption predictor from scratch on JET and implications for ITER

S. Dormido-Canto, J. Vega, J.M. Ramírez, A. Murari, R. Moreno, J.M. López, A. Pereira

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Abstract

Prediction of disruptions from scratch is an ITER-relevant topic. The first operations with the new ITER-like wall constitute a good opportunity to test the development of new predictors from scratch and the related methodologies. These methodologies have been based on the Advanced Predictor Of DISruptions (APODIS) architecture. APODIS is a real-time disruption predictor that is in operation in the JET real-time network. Balanced and unbalanced datasets are used to develop real-time predictors from scratch. The discharges are used in chronological order. Also, different criteria to decide when to re-train a predictor are discussed. The best results are obtained by applying a hybrid method (balanced/unbalanced datasets) for training and with the criterion of re-training after every missed alarm. The predictors are tested off-line with all the discharges (disruptive/non-disruptive) corresponding to the first three JET ITER-like wall campaigns. The results give a success rate of 93.8% and a false alarm rate of 2.8%. It should be considered that these results are obtained from models trained with no more than 42 disruptive discharges. © 2013 IAEA, Vienna.
Original languageEnglish
Article number113001
Pages (from-to)-
JournalNuclear Fusion
Volume53
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2013
Externally publishedYes

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Nuclear and High Energy Physics
  • Condensed Matter Physics

Cite this

Dormido-Canto, S., Vega, J., Ramírez, J. M., Murari, A., Moreno, R., López, J. M., & Pereira, A. (2013). Development of an efficient real-time disruption predictor from scratch on JET and implications for ITER. Nuclear Fusion, 53(11), -. [113001]. https://doi.org/10.1088/0029-5515/53/11/113001