Forecasting PM 10 in metropolitan areas: Efficacy of neural networks

H.J.S. Fernando, M.C. Mammarella, G. Grandoni, P. Fedele, R. Di Marco, R. Dimitrova, P. Hyde

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

77 Citations (Scopus)


Deterministic photochemical air quality models are commonly used for regulatory management and planning of urban airsheds. These models are complex, computer intensive, and hence are prohibitively expensive for routine air quality predictions. Stochastic methods are becoming increasingly popular as an alternative, which relegate decision making to artificial intelligence based on Neural Networks that are made of artificial neurons or 'nodes' capable of 'learning through training' via historic data. A Neural Network was used to predict particulate matter concentration at a regulatory monitoring site in Phoenix, Arizona; its development, efficacy as a predictive tool and performance vis-à-vis a commonly used regulatory photochemical model are described in this paper. It is concluded that Neural Networks are much easier, quicker and economical to implement without compromising the accuracy of predictions. Neural Networks can be used to develop rapid air quality warning systems based on a network of automated monitoring stations. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)62 - 67
Number of pages6
JournalEnvironmental Pollution
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2012
Externally publishedYes


All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Pollution
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
  • Toxicology
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Fernando, H. J. S., Mammarella, M. C., Grandoni, G., Fedele, P., Di Marco, R., Dimitrova, R., & Hyde, P. (2012). Forecasting PM 10 in metropolitan areas: Efficacy of neural networks. Environmental Pollution, 163, 62 - 67.