Inter-comparison of population models for the calculation of radiation dose effects on wildlife

Jordi Vives I Batlle, Tatiana G. Sazykina, Alexander Kryshev, Luigi Monte, Isao Kawaguchi

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An inter-comparison of five models designed to predict the effect of ionizing radiation on populations of non-human wildlife, performed under the IAEA EMRAS II programme, is presented and discussed. A benchmark scenario 'Population response to chronic irradiation' was developed in which stable generic populations of mice, hare/rabbit, wolf/wild dog and deer were modelled as subjected to chronic low-LET radiation with dose rates of 0-5 × 10-2Gy day-1in increments of 10-2Gy day-1. The duration of exposure simulations was 5 years. Results are given for the size of each surviving population for each of the applied dose rates at the end of the 1st to 5th years of exposure. Despite the theoretical differences in the modelling approaches, the inter-comparison allowed the identification of a series of common findings. At dose rates of about 10-2Gy day-1for 5 years, the survival of populations of short-lived species was better than that of long-lived species: significant reduction in large mammals was predicted whilst small mammals survive at 80-100 % of the control. Dose rates in excess of 2 × 10-2Gy day-1for 5 years produced considerable reduction in all populations. From this study, a potential relationship between higher reproduction rates and lower radiation effects at population level can be hypothesized. The work signals the direction for future investigations to validate and improve the predictive ability of different population dose effects models. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)399 - 410
Number of pages12
JournalRadiation and Environmental Biophysics
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2012
Externally publishedYes


All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biophysics
  • Radiation
  • Environmental Science(all)

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