Predictive bayes design of scram systems: Related mathematics and philosophical implications

Carlo A. Clarotti, Fabio Spizzichino

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Conclusions -The predictive Bayes approach to reliability provides a rational method for scoring different design solutions for systems which can fail. This statement is supported by solving the problem of optimal design of Scram systems formed from constant-failure-rate components, and called into operation by plant-transients which occur according to a Poisson process. The lessons from this exercise are: • in the predictive Bayes frame, any reliability problem is a sequential statistical decision problem; • design by mean-cost minimization (the use of Bayes approach, and in particular its predictive version) requires extensive numerical analysis. ©1996 IEEE.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)485 - 490
Number of pages6
JournalIEEE Transactions on Reliability
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 1996
Externally publishedYes


All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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