Traffic estimation and prediction based on real time floating car data

Corrado De Fabritiis, Roberto Ragona, Gaetano Valenti

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

191 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The knowledge of the actual current state of the road traffic and its short-term evolution for the entire road network is a basic component of AXIS (Advanced Traveler Information Systems) and ATMS (Advanced Traffic Management System) applications. In this view the use of real-time Floating-Car Data (FCD), based on traces of GPS positions, is emerging as a reliable and cost-effective way to gather accurate travel times/speeds in a road network and to improve short-term predictions of travel conditions. The purpose of this paper is to present a large-scale working application of FCD-system, developed and operated by OCTOTelematics, delivering real-time traffic speed information throughout the Italian motorway network and along some important arterial streets located in major Italian metropolitan areas. Traffic speed estimates are deduced at an interval of 3 minutes from GPS traces transmitted in real-time from a large number (and still growing) of privately owned cars (about 600.000) equipped with a specific device covering a range of insurance-related applications. This paper also proposes two algorithms, respectively based on Artificial Neural Networks and Pattern-Matching, designed to on-line perform short-term (15 to 30 minutes) predictions of link travel speeds by using current and near-past link average speeds estimated by the OCTOTelematics FCD system. The Rome ring road (GRA-Grande Raccordo Anulare) was used for testing the feasibility of the two algorithms. Testing results showed that the proposed approaches for short-term predictions are very promising and effective. © 2008 IEEE.
Original languageEnglish
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008
Event11th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2008 - , China
Duration: 1 Jan 2008 → …

Conference

Conference11th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2008
CountryChina
Period1/1/08 → …

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Automotive Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications

Cite this

De Fabritiis, C., Ragona, R., & Valenti, G. (2008). Traffic estimation and prediction based on real time floating car data. Paper presented at 11th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2008, China. https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2008.4732534